Average price versus benchmark price
Average price is the mean of everything that sold, so it swings with the mix of properties. A month with more detached sales looks like price growth even if nothing changed. The benchmark or house price index tracks a consistent property over time and is the better measure of direction.
Sales-to-new-listings ratio
This is the clearest read on market balance. Broadly, a high ratio indicates a seller's market, a low ratio a buyer's market, and the middle band is balanced. Watch it by property type and by district, because condos and detached homes in Toronto routinely sit in different conditions in the same month.
- High ratio: demand outpacing new supply, upward price pressure
- Low ratio: supply outpacing demand, negotiating room for buyers
- Track by segment, not for the whole region
Months of inventory
Active listings divided by monthly sales. It answers how long the current supply would take to clear at the present pace. It is the most intuitive measure of leverage in a negotiation.
Averages hide neighbourhoods
Regional statistics blend dozens of distinct markets. A one-bedroom condo downtown and a detached home in Scarborough are not in the same market. Always pull the numbers for your property type in your district before drawing a conclusion.
Frequently asked questions
- Which number should I watch as a buyer?
- Months of inventory and the sales-to-new-listings ratio for your specific property type and district. Those tell you your negotiating position.
- Why do headlines contradict each other?
- Because they mix average price, benchmark price, and year-over-year versus month-over-month comparisons, which can move in different directions in the same month.
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